January 15, 2008 - In '07, Xbox 360 had a killer line-up of top-tier titles. But that didn't keep Wii from surpassing the 360's install base. With Sony gearing up for a big year on PS3 and moms and dads flocking to the Wii, what does Microsoft need to do to win the console wars in 2008?IGN Xbox 360 editors Hilary Goldstein, Erik Brudvig and Nate Ahearn sat gathered to discuss Microsoft's prospects in '08. No animals were harmed in the making of this roundtable. Unless you consider Nate an animal.Hil: Microsoft had two things going for it last year: better software and Xbox Live. Even with the release of PlayStation Home this year, I can't imagine that Sony's online service is suddenly going to become more accessible and popular than Xbox Live. Microsoft just has to make sure Live works.The software side might be trickier. There's no doubt that there are several big exclusive games in the hopper that have yet to be announced. But this might be tough this year. Metal Gear Solid 4 is a huge exclusive for PS3 and it doesn't look like it will (or even can) come to 360 in 2008. Add to that some first-party games such as Killzone 2, LittleBigPlanet, Gran Turismo 5, SOCOM and Infamous and you have a pretty solid line-up. If there are some other hidden monster games in that list, then Sony will have some firepower.Microsoft needs the big guns such as Fable 2, Too Human, Halo Wars and Alan Wake to ship in 2008. Sure, the slip of one of these games won't be disastrous, but more than that and things will get a little tricky. It's not enough for Microsoft to match Sony blow for blow; Microsoft needs to throw uppercuts. This is a crucial year for 360 and PS3. It's not enough to be one inch ahead. Microsoft needs to finish strong and show consumers there is no reason to purchase a PS3. Even if that means announcing some major '09 games at E3. This is the type of year where Microsoft can't hold back.
Topping the Wii is going to be trickier. It doesn't look like Nintendo is going to offer much in the way of great software outside of Smash Bros. and possibly a new Animal Crossing. But the Wii is going to sell, because of a great marketing campaign. The fight against Wii is all about offering more casual games. And one thing to help MS would be to offer some free XBLA games to Gold members. Things like chess, checkers and even Monopoly. They can offer a basic board for free and then charge for skins. Who wouldn't pay an extra $5 for a Halo-themed Monopoly board?The other way to combat the Wii and PS3 is with a price drop. Even if it means Microsoft starts losing money again on consoles sold, the current price is too high. The 360 doesn't offer the features of the PS3. So either drop the price another $50-100 or add a free HD-DVD pack-in.Ultimately, this is still a war of software. And you have to believe that if Xbox 360 continues to offer more and better games, then it will win out in the long run. After all, Wii may sell more units, but 360 sells far more games.Erik: Parents are running towards the Wii because it has several things the Xbox 360 can't compete with right now. The price is closer to right and it comes with a game that is easy to get into and fun for entry level gamers and hardcore alike. Microsoft's attempts at nosing into this market haven't been successful.In the Xbox 360 corner there's Scene It? and the Rock Band/Guitar Hero craze but none of them target that casual demographic as successfully as Wii Sports does. The cost is prohibitive for the music rhythm games and Scene It? doesn't offer anything new. The ace in the hole for Microsoft is the Xbox Live Arcade but it needs to make better use of it. I'm in total agreement with what you said here, Hil.Uno is a perfect example of the right direction for the Live Arcade. The idea needs to be taken to the next level. Forget this shovel-ware we see so often. Forget charging 5-10 bucks for chess, poker, or Tetris. If MS wants to capture the casual market that these games attract, they need to deliver a host of board and card games for free to Xbox Live users. You can't really expect people to get excited about playing casual games on the Live Arcade when the same ones exist for free on the web.A price drop would be a good start for Microsoft, but I think a redesign on the console is more important. Sony has boosted sales numerous times in the past just by remodeling the systems and Microsoft would do well to take a page out of their book. It's not just about making something smaller or sleeker here. Microsoft took steps towards addressing reliability with a better warrantee and changing the interior of the system somewhat. That was a good start. Now toss out the design that everyone associates with the three red lights. Wipe the slate entirely clean and deliver something that looks sexy and runs quietly, reliably and efficiently. It wouldn't be easy with faceplates and hard drives making the move, but it really needs to be done.Continuing to foster the online community is another important move for Microsoft. I'm still interested in seeing Xbox Live integrated with Xbox.com. Blogging about games through the dashboard to Xbox.com, sharing game videos through a single outlet (like Halo 3 or skate but for all games) and expanding Xbox Live profiles are all things that would get the hardcore gamers talking and hyping the system. Heck, they might even expand the audience a bit.Nate: I agree with Erik in that Microsoft needs to start pushing Xbox Live Arcade games as their answer for casual gamers. The Wii banks so heavily on the casual market (which every knows is incalculably larger than the hardcore) yet all of its games are full-priced. What I'd really like to see Microsoft do is expand the service a bit more to offer larger games (in terms of download size) and more complete experiences. Not only would this more squarely align the service to compete with the Wii but it would also make the Xbox Live Arcade a larger percentage of the 360's bottom line. Bigger chunk of revenue means more marketing muscle which, if done properly, can then turn into sales. When was the last time you saw a commercial pumping up a big XBLA release like Doom or Undertow? If XBLA is going to be the casual answer for the 360 then that needs to become a reality.A price drop would be a good start for Microsoft, but I think a redesign on the console is more important. Sony has boosted sales numerous times in the past just by remodeling the systems and Microsoft would do well to take a page out of their book. It's not just about making something smaller or sleeker here. Microsoft took steps towards addressing reliability with a better warrantee and changing the interior of the system somewhat. That was a good start. Now toss out the design that everyone associates with the three red lights. Wipe the slate entirely clean and deliver something that looks sexy and runs quietly, reliably and efficiently. It wouldn't be easy with faceplates and hard drives making the move, but it really needs to be done.Continuing to foster the online community is another important move for Microsoft. I'm still interested in seeing Xbox Live integrated with Xbox.com. Blogging about games through the dashboard to Xbox.com, sharing game videos through a single outlet (like Halo 3 or skate but for all games) and expanding Xbox Live profiles are all things that would get the hardcore gamers talking and hyping the system. Heck, they might even expand the audience a bit.Nate: I agree with Erik in that Microsoft needs to start pushing Xbox Live Arcade games as their answer for casual gamers. The Wii banks so heavily on the casual market (which every knows is incalculably larger than the hardcore) yet all of its games are full-priced. What I'd really like to see Microsoft do is expand the service a bit more to offer larger games (in terms of download size) and more complete experiences. Not only would this more squarely align the service to compete with the Wii but it would also make the Xbox Live Arcade a larger percentage of the 360's bottom line. Bigger chunk of revenue means more marketing muscle which, if done properly, can then turn into sales. When was the last time you saw a commercial pumping up a big XBLA release like Doom or Undertow? If XBLA is going to be the casual answer for the 360 then that needs to become a reality.
In terms of how to continue to lay the whoopin' on Sony and its giant black obelisk of pain Microsoft needs to continue to hammer home the point that the best games are available on Xbox 360. It really unnerved me to see Call of Duty 4 and Assassin's Creed (more so with COD4) labeled as PS3 games in their marketing campaigns. It's not like Microsoft couldn't have put up a bit more cash and kept the games either neutral or brought them back under the Xbox label. Regardless, if Too Human, Fable 2, Ninja Gaiden 2, Alan Wake and Halo Wars all pan out then there isn't a whole lot that Sony will be able to do to stop the Xbox 360. Less, of course, the end-game known as Metal Gear Solid 4.2008 should also be the year when we really see an expansion of Xbox Live functionality. Remember when Bill Gates touted Xbox Live Anywhere as the next big thing? Well, let's see it. I want to be able to check my friends list or leave my buddy a voice message on his console from my Blackberry. Make me understand why I pay 50 bucks a year for a service that the competition offers for free, because right now I'm sort of still wondering. Oh and then there's the pipe dream of developing a game where Xbox Live gamers can have an enjoyable experience playing against PC folks. I'm still holding out hope for that too.Hil: I'm going to drop a word that seems to turn everyone's stomach. But it's a word that has validity in discussions about 360.Synergy.Microsoft has the Zune, it has Xbox.com and it has a variety of Windows applications. None of them work harmoniously with the 360. That needs to change. That we're on version 2.0 of Zune and it's still not even slightly integrated with the 360 Dashboard is astounding. Why not push the Zune with the 360 and vice versa? Heck, J Allard, formerly "The Man" of Xbox 360, is now the big daddy of Zune. This has to be a priority for Microsoft. It's time to throw some warm loving arms around the 360 and embrace it as part of the Microsoft family.It's also about time we saw some MMOs on Xbox 360. Good MMOs. Something other than Final Fantasy XI. Get World of Warcraft on the system. Get some new console-oriented MMOs functioning on Xbox Live. We've been promised MMOs since the early days of the original Xbox. Microsoft needs to lend its support to MMO developers, aid them as much as possible. It's time for MMOs to become a force on consoles.Nate: Yes! That's another thing that I wanted to mention. Microsoft owns the PC market thanks to Windows, so why is there not some snazzy way for my PC to interact with my 360 or my Zune to my 360? Or all of them together?! Users should get some sort of reward for buying a snazzy Vista PC, a Zune and 360 and that reward should come in the form of interconnectivity (synergy). You can tell that they're working their way there way towards this slowly but surely because of the similar marketing look (circle theme) across different products, but it's now time for our dreams to be realized.Erik: That's your dream, Nate? Synergy? I tend to dream about things that would get me fired if I described them here.That's a good excuse though. If I'm sleeping at my desk moaning, don't wake me. I'm dreaming about "synergy."Nate: I have weird dreams, what can I say? Seriously though, that's one foothold that Microsoft needs to exploit. It's something that no other console manufacturer can capitalize on, yet so much of the Xbox 360's prospective audience could take advantage of such a feature since chances are they already own PCs with a Microsoft operating system. Now back to dreaming synergistic things.Hil:Question: Are you being served?Answer: My name is Nate Ahearn, and yes, I am served with regularity.You know Nate, the PC does interface with your 360. You can stream movies and more from your PC through your 360 and onto your TV. Now if you mean you want people to create content on their PC and important it to games on 360, that's not likely to happen. Microsoft would be sued the moment someone used the 360 to create a G.I. Joe mod for Call of Duty 4. The content would require an approval process and that just seems like a big mess. It's possible, but I'd say unlikely.Something that the original Xbox had that 360 is missing is clan support. More than two years into the system's life and still no universal clan system. It's the natural progression of the Friends List. We thought Halo 3 would be the launch point for this, but sadly that was not the case. What exactly is the hold up? Microsoft can't sit on its hands with Live. It has to keep pushing the online arena and continue to make it more and more of a community event.Erik: It's true that the PC already interfaces with the 360. I'd hardly call it snazzy though. With all of the DRM issues, confusing methods for linking a 360 to your PC and $100 wireless LAN adapter there is very little that is actually snazzy for the entry level gamer. It's time for things to get more user friendly.
One last thing Microsoft needs to do to stay in the driver seat: Blow us away at GDC. An announcement along the lines of Gears of War 2 would give gamers something to be excited about for months. That "next big thing" slot has been sitting empty since Halo 3 launched (no offense to GTA IV...you're just too multi-console to get people excited about the Xbox 360).Nate: Yes, yes, I knew someone was going to point out the fact that you can stream movies and music through your 360, but that's not enough for me. I want my PC to have the ability to be an extension of my Xbox 360 play experience. I understand that Microsoft needs to keep a distinct line between the PC market and the 360 market, but something beyond the barebones experience that I could get from the original Xbox would be wonderful.Hil: I wouldn't mind seeing a Blu-ray drive offered. Unfortunately, it would probably be more expensive than the HD DVD drive. But it's time Microsoft accepted that HD DVD is in the crapper and offer gamers an alternative. Right now, the best option for a Blu-ray player is to buy a $400 PS3. Time to give 360 owners a better option.Alright, so the big question: Does Microsoft take back top spot by year's end?Nate: I don't see any of the positions changing in 2008. Microsoft will make up some ground on Wii because people will realize that the novelty of waiving your hands at a screen and having things react to your motion actually isn't that cool. Sony's system will gain some ground to put some pressure on Microsoft (and hopefully force The Big M into the price drop that Hil talked about) but will remain in the last spot of the trio. Boring, I know, but that's my prediction.Erik: I'm with Nate on the order thing, though I don't really see the 360 gaining a lot on the Wii. It's still sold out for Pete's sake.Hil: I think Sony is going to gain some serious ground in terms of console sales. People are starting to shift towards HD media and the PS3 is the system that comes with Blu-ray. It's affordable at $400. The Wii will be sold out through the year. It's just going to sell and sell and sell. But while Microsoft may be behind in console sales, I think it will destroy the other two in terms of software. And in terms of money generated through downloadable content. Episodic content for GTA IV and Mass Effect will bring in huge bank. And if Too Human, Fable 2 and Halo Wars come in '08, then there will be some fat stacks of green shoved in Microsoft's pockets. Without a system redesign or a price drop, I can't see MS competing in hardware sales. But by the end of '08, 360 will still be king of multiplatform games and console exclusives.
Via Xbox360IGN